Who Dat say Dey gonna beat Dem Saints? The odds are someone will. Saints fans can only hope that it will be in the regular season and it will be the only loss the Saints have this year.
The Saints are outstanding. With fellow undefeated team Indianapolis, 1-loss Minnesota, 2- loss New England and possibly 2-loss Pittsburgh, the Saints have as good a chance as anyone to be Super Bowl champs. In fact, especially with Indy being so banged up, if you had to choose one team right now that has the best chance of winning the whole ball of Lombardi wax, it would be the Saints.
But undefeated? It most likely Aint gonna happen for the Saints. Teams just don’t go undefeated in the NFL. In the history of the league, only 4 teams have ever ended the regular season unblemished— ’34 Bears, ’42 Bears, ’72 Dolphins, ’07 Patriots. Only one, the ‘72 Dolphins, parlayed that into a championship—14-0 in the regular season, 3-0 in the playoffs for a perfect 17-0 record. And, there were some mitigating circumstances (see below).
So, that makes one undefeated team in the 89 year history of the NFL. And, for a majority of the time, teams played 12 regular season games, as opposed to the present 16.
Playoffs were considerably shorter throughout much of NFL history. To go undefeated in 2009, the Saints (or the Colts) would have to go 19-0.
So, the Halas Bears, Lombardi Packers, the Steel Curtain, the Landry Cowboys, the Montana-Rice 49’ers, the Johnson/Switzer Cowboys, the Ditka Saints (just kidding, wanted to see if you were paying attention), the Belichick Patriots–to name some “dynasties” of the last 70 years—not one of them had a perfect season. And with all due respect to the Bless You Boys, the Sean Payton Saints have a lot to prove before they can be mentioned with these all-time great teams.
What has to happen for the Saints to defy the odds?
1. Can’t turn the ball over the way they have the last 3 weeks.
2. Stop the run the way they haven’t the last 2 weeks.
3. Keep Drew Brees and Darren Sharper healthy.
4. Keep the 1-game at a time mentality that seems to be a mantra of this team
5. Have the Vikings win the rest of their games, thus making every game the Saints play the rest of the regular season have some importance. In this scenario, home field advantage throughout the playoffs would be on the line each week.
6-10. Most importantly, the Saints need to be lucky. Again, the Saints are outstanding. But to remain undefeated, the Saints need to be outstanding and have good fortune. An official’s call, the bounce of the football, an opposing team that gets jacked up to play the Saints (which every team will be) is on its game and gets breaks. All could prove to be the undoing of the Who Dats in the regular season.
One component of this “luck of the draw” is a team’s schedule. How good were the ’72 Dolphins, the only team ever to go undefeated? Coach Don Shula will tell you that his ’73 team, which also won the Super Bowl but went 12-2 in the regular season, was better. In the Dolphins case, their regular season schedule was a lot tougher in ’73 than ’72.
The Saints remaining schedule? Of the other aforementioned 4 other 2009 Super Bowl favorites, the Saints will not play the Vikings, the Colts or the Steelers in the regular season. The Saints play the Patriots, but it is at the Dome. Another potential threat, the Cowboys, also play the Saints on Poydras Street. The rest of the Saints regular season schedule does look navigable. Atlanta and Carolina on the road, I guess, could result in an upset. But, St Louis, Washington, and Tampa 2 (not the famed Tampa 2 defense of Tony Dungy, but the 2 games the Saints have left with the Yuks…an aside, the team the ’77 Bucs defeated to break an 0-26 NFL start was the….er…never mind!) are obviously very, very winnable games.
Then, there are the playoffs. The best team—regular season record-wise, in the last 2 decades, usually doesn’t win the Super Bowl. If my calculations are correct, in the last 20 years, the team with the best regular season record has won the Super Bowl 7 times.
The last 5 years, the regular season winner was not the Super Bowl Champs.
So, history tells us that the odds are very much against the Saints to go undefeated. But, history also has given us John Mecom, Tom Benson, Big Bens, Woulda Coulda Shoulda, The Astronaut(one GM), the Bean Counter (prior to this year when present GM Mickey Loomis is now a genius), the Aints, Rickey Williams (prior to reform), George Rogers (prior to reform) over LT, the almost Jacksonville Saints, the almost San Antonio Saints, Katrina, Mike Ditka…..So, maybe after 42 years of a largely dismal history—what are the odds of all of this misery befalling one professional sports team?.. Maybe this is the year that Saints create a different kind of legacy…to not only win the Super Bowl, but to make it a perfect 19-0 season!
The football gods (and oddsmakers) tell us it can’t happen. But they never had to defend Drew Brees or pass the ball against Darren Sharper! It truly could happen!!
But, one small favor guys. Don’t lose to the St. Louis Lambs this weekend!!!
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Can Denham Springs HS avenge their regular season loss to Catholic HS in the first round of the playoffs? Special teams could be as big a factor as anything in determining the outcome of this game. Catholic’s kicker constantly backed up the Jackets to their 20 yard line by putting kickoffs in the endzone when the 2 teams met earlier this year.
One of Denham Springs’ weak points has been kickoffs and punting. Then again, #31, Michael Early, has very much emerged as a special teams giant for Denham Springs
since the 2 teams last met.
If you looked at the yardage between the 2 teams earlier this year, it was very close.
A deflected pass off a Denham receiver that should have been caught with CHS picking it off and returning to the Jacket 6 yard line…a fumble by Denham that was, to use tennis terminology, an “unforced error” deep in CHS territory. Take these 2 plays away (which you can’t…they’re part of the ballgame) and the outcome is probably the same, but the score is a heck of a lot closer.
Denham Springs defense has been vice-like the second half of the season. Early and Romel Williams have become playmakers. The Jackets are not Air Nettles, but have shown some semblance of a passing game. If there is an intangible advantage when playing a team a second time, it usually goes to the team that lost the first match-up.
So, can the Jackets pull it off? If they don’t turn it over—like they did in the first game against CHS (and an unfathomable 5 times vs Scotlandville last week), the Denham defense can certainly make some big plays of its own (scoring or creating field position). This could swing the turnover differential/field position in the Jackets favor, usually a critical factor in what shapes up to be a defensive struggle. Special teams, if not a Jackets advantage, will have to be a wash or at least can’t devastatingly hurt Denham. If much of this takes place, look for a low scoring game, with the Jackets having a reasonable chance to prevail!
If that happens, it’s Round 2 for Dru Nettles’ Jackets—the first time Denham Springs will have advanced to the second round of the playoffs since 1989!
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Last Week’s Trivia question: What future major league manager was one of the third basemen on the dreadful Yankees teams of the late 60’s? That would be Bobby Cox.
Jeff from Missouri correctly answered the question.
This Week’s Question: ’72 Dolphins Defensive Coordinator? He also was a head coach in the NFL and struggled. On the collegiate level he fared a lot better. Winner, if in Louisiana, gets a $25 gift certificate from one of our sponsors.
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Jon Fine, Producer, SportsGumbo.net
